Property report MyHome.ie report in partnership with Q4 2020 Results MYHOME REPORT POINTS TO PRICE GAINS IN 2021 Property report MyHome.ie report in partnership with Q4 2020 Results MYHOME REPORT POINTS TO PRICE GAINS IN 2021 Are inflation and negligible interest rates eroding value? Right now, holding cash in an account or in a pension could actually cost you money. So, if youre in that position, the best investment you can make, is a conversation with us. By talking to you personally, our trusted Advisers can help you In this issue Angela Keegan Managing Director MyHome.ie Where do we start when we talk about 2020? This time last year, no one could have predicted what we have gone through since March. Its been quite an unbelievable time for the country as a whole, and indeed for the property market. When the vi MyHome report points to price gains in 2021 Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist, Davy Research This quarters MyHome reports points to an acceleration in asking price inflation to 6% in the final quarter of 2020, the fastest pace in almost three years. This pressure has not yet turned up in transact Asking price inflation accelerates again to 6% The MyHome report points to an acceleration of asking price inflation. Nationally, prices rose by 0.6% quarteron-quarter, pushing the annual inflation rate up to 6.2% (from 5.1% in Q2). In Dublin, prices rose by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, up 4.6% on the y COVID-19 have intensified their search for a home to buy. Figure 3 shows that searches on MyHome for residential property have been up compared with 2019 levels. Irish housing market continues to tighten A feature of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland has been that job cuts have been concentrated amo Mortgage lending data show strong demand for housing €239,000 in the previous quarter. In short, it appeared that risk aversion and credit constraints were curtailing housing market activity. Mortgage lending for house purchase in Q3 2020 equalled €1.6bn, still down 29% on the year, a gradual impr Disruption in homebuilding may be felt in 2021 were 5,441 starts in Q3, down 28% on 2019. Worryingly, there was little improvement in Octobers figure of 2,222, still down 30% on 2019. There were 5,100 housing completions in Q3 2020, bouncing back quickly following the disruption of the first lockd housing development projects are completed. That said, there were still 20,800 commencements in the year to October, a far better picture than presented by some commentators. Rental market seeing impact from COVID-19 The COVID-1919 pandemic appears to have had a marked impact on the availability of Property Price Register analysis The Property Price Register indicates that so far in 2020 there have been 40,353 transactions recorded, worth €12.9bn. We estimate that the trough in transaction volumes was in Q2 2020, during the lockdown period, when they were down 40% on 2019. Transaction volumes COUNTY ANALYSIS Median asking price Q4 2020 Annual % change Source: MyHome.ie MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2020 11 County analysis: two-bedroom apartments Price inflation for two-bed apartments remained positive in Q4 2020 in 19 of the 26 counties. In Dublin, price inflation accelerated to 2%, with a median price of €260,000. In the commuter belt counties, price inflation was 8.7% in Meath to €185,000 and 1% in County analysis: four-bedroom, semi -detached Four-bed semi-detached asking prices Figure 10 Q2 2020 - € Quarterly change Annual change Carlow 229,500 520.79% 21.27% Cavan 170,000 3.03% 3.03% Clare 215,000 2.38% 8.04% Cork 320,000 6.67% 8.47% Donegal 145,000 0.00% -6.45% Gal Dublin analysis The CSOs RPPI indicates that inflation was -1.2% in Dublin in October. However, prices rose by -0.5% on the month, the sharpest gain since January, providing tentative evidence of a bounce-back. House price inflation was -4.4% in Dublin city, -1.2% in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown, 1.5% in Regional analysis The median price on new instructions to sell in Q4 2020 was €285,000, up 9.6% on the year. The mix adjusted measure was up 6.2% on the year. Within the commuter belt, Kildare prices were down 2% on the year to €250,000 and both Meath and Wicklow were flat on the year at €260,000 an Graham is an independent financial analyst who specialises in investment consulting services. He previously managed portfolios for an international mutual organisation in London with over £14 billion in assets under management and one million members across Canada, the US and the UK. He has eight ye Raw data Q4 2006 - Q4 2020 Raw data Q3 2006- Q2 2015 Figure 10 INDICES National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2006 138.57 139.24 134.67 139.23 Q4 2007 136.30 134.64 136.16 136.43 Q4 2008 122.08 118.40 124.59 121.84 Q4 2009 104.25 96.76 105.95 104.02 Q4 2010 90.59 82.07 91.88 90.33 Q4 2011 78.80 70. Q4 Highlights MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2020 18 About the Davy Group Who are we? €14bn+ of our client assets, with to understand what really matters Established in 1926, Davy is a offices in Dublin, Cork, Galway, to our clients, delivering the best trusted market leader in wealth Belfast, London and Luxembourg. outcomes for them. managem 20,000+ PROPERTIES NATIONWIDE MyHome is here for you wherever you are - Mobile, Tablet & Desktop Discover: HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PROPERTY IMAGES VIRTUAL WALK THROUGHS INTERACTIVE MAPS Search from the convenience of your own home CHECK OUT LOCAL SCHOOLS AND AMENITIES IN THE AREA